Prospective stratification of patients at risk for emergency department revisit: resource utilization and population management strategy implications

Table 1 ED 6 month revisit risk stratification results

Characteristics	Retrospective			Prospective
	(Jan. 1, 2012 – Dec. 31, 2012)			(Jan. 1, 2013 – Jun. 30, 2013)
	Risk score threshold			Risk score threshold
	50	70	80	50	70	80
No. of ED encounters	95,785	75,593	49,109	62,189	47,235	28,166
Positive predictive value	0.614	0.696	0.83	0.597	0.669	0.794
Sensitivity	0.758	0.598	0.389	0.716	0.544	0.324
Specificity	0.639	0.802	0.94	0.608	0.781	0.931
Average ED visits in the future 6 months	2.13	2.74	4.11	2.32	3.01	4.77

ISSN: 1471-227X