Fig. 2

a–d. Calibration plots. On the x-axis is predicted probability of early mortality and on the y-axis is observed probability of early mortality across ten quantiles of predicted early mortality. The dotted line indicates perfect calibration. The solid line indicates a smoothed association between observed and predicted probability of early mortality and the dashed line a graphical representation of the calibration slope. a Basic model with systolic blood pressure and Glasgow coma scale [22] b Basic model + heart rate [22] c Model by Kondo et al.[10] d Model by Perel et al.[8] e Systolic blood pressure model (f) Glasgow coma scale model