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Table 2 Multivariable model of in-patient admission with risk score using derivation set Akiake Information Criterion (intercept only 2326760, intercept and covariates 1768771) Area under Receiver Operator curve for validation dataset 0.82 (95% CI 0.81, 0.82). Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic p < 0.001

From: The Sydney Triage to Admission Risk Tool (START) to predict Emergency Department Disposition: A derivation and internal validation study using retrospective state-wide data from New South Wales, Australia

Variable Coefficient Odds ratio (95% CI) P value Risk score
Age     
16–19 yrs Ref Na   0
20–39 yrs 0.19 1.21 (1.19,1.23) <0.001 +1
40–59 yrs 0.61 1.85 (1.82, 1.88) <0.001 +3
60–79 yrs 1.20 3.31 (3.25, 3.37) <0.001 +6
≥80 yrs 1.79 6.01 (5.89, 6.13) <0.001 +9
Ambulance arrival 0.77 2.17 (2.15, 2.19) <0.001 +4
Triage category     
1 4.47 87.13 (82.15, 92.60) <0.001 +24
2 2.99 19.84 (19.28, 20.32) <0.001 +16
3 2.08 7.97 (7.80, 8.15) <0.001 +11
4 1.10 3.00 (2.94, 3.07) <0.001 +5
5 Ref Na   0
Admission within 30 days 0.66 1.93 (1.90, 1.96) <0.001 +3
ED arrival time     
0800–1759 0.21 1.23 (1.22, 1.25) <0.001 +1
1800–2259 0.01 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) 0.06 0
2300–0759 Ref na   0
Presenting problem     
Abdominal, gastrointestinal 0.33 1.39 (1.37, 1.41) <0.001 +2
Cardiovascular −0.71 0.49 (0.46, 0.48) <0.001 −3
General symptoms Ref Na   0
Febrile illness 0.65 1.91 (1.87, 1.96) <0.001 +3
Injury −0.75 0.47 (0.46, 0.49) <0.001 −4
Respiratory 0.01 1.01 (0.99,1.03) 0.19 0
Musculoskeletal −0.57 0.56 (0.55, 0.57) <0.001 −3
Neurological −0.25 0.78 (0.77, 0.79) <0.001 −1
Mental health −0.32 0.72 (0.71, 0.74) <0.001 −2
Toxicological −0.30 0.74 (0.72, 0.77) <0.001 −2
ENT/eye/head and neck −1.17 0.31 (0.30, 0.32) <0.001 −6
Administrative −0.57 0.57 (0.55, 0.59) <0.001 −3
Genitourinary −0.16 0.85 (0.83, 0.87) <0.001 −1
Social 0.19 1.21 (1.07, 1.38) 0.004 +1
Endocrine −0.03 0.97 (0.91, 1.05) 0.26 0
Obstetrics, Gynaecology −0.55 0.58 (0.56, 0.59) <0.001 −3
Skin, allergy −0.30 0.74 (0.72, 0.76) <0.001 −2
Other medical 0.99 2.70 (2.40, 3.04) <0.001 +5