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Table 3 Results of multivariate logistic regression to predict breaching the four h target

From: Who breaches the four-hour emergency department wait time target? A retrospective analysis of 374,000 emergency department attendances between 2008 and 2013 at a type 1 emergency department in England

Variable Odds ratio with 95% confidence interval P-Value
Arrival houra
 20:00–7:59 1.50 (1.47 to 1.54) <0.001
Day of the weekb
 Monday 1.50 (1.43 to 1.56) <0.001
 Tuesday 1.29 (1.24 to 1.35) <0.001
 Wednesday 1.27 (1.21 to 1.33) <0.001
 Thursday 1.11 (1.06 to 1.16) <0.001
 Friday 1.09 (1.04 to 1.14) <0.001
 Sunday 1.18 (1.13 to 1.23) <0.001
 Age (if younger than 4) 0.84 (0.83 to 0.85) <0.001
 Age (if 4 or older) 1.20 (1.19 to 1.23) <0.001
 Self-referralc 0.59 (0.57 to 0.60) <0.001
Investigation categoryd
 Point of care 1.10 (1.01 to 1.19) <0.001
 Labs, point of care 2.41 (2.32 to 2.51) <0.001
 Simple imaging, labs, point of care 2.24 (2.16 to 2.51) <0.001
 Complex imaging, simple imaging, laboratory tests, point of care 4.86 (4.63 to 5.10) <0.001
 Number of attendances in the previous financial year 1.008 (1.006 to 1.011) <0.001
Yeare
 2009 1.63 (1.53 to 1.74) <0.001
 2010 2.25 (2.12 to 2.39) <0.001
 2011 4.64 (4.39 to 4.91) <0.001
 2012 4.92 (4.66 to 5.21) <0.001
 2013 4.28 (4.00 to 4.57) <0.001
Season
 October–February inclusive (high season)f 1.63 (1.59 to 1.66) <0.001
  1. aCompared to arrival between 8:00–19:59
  2. bThe reference day was Saturday
  3. cCompared to all other types of referral: emergency services, general medical practitioner, dental practitioners, dental practices, community dental services, police, work, educational establishments, and local authority social services
  4. dComparison category is “no investigations ordered”
  5. eThe reference year was 2008
  6. fCompared to ED attendances in March–September inclusive (Low season)
  7. Model metrics: R2 = 12%