Baseline characteristics | Success (N = 237) | Failure (N = 92) | p-value | AuROC (95% CI) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gender, Female (N, %) | 130 | 54.85% | 39 | 42.39% | 0.049 | 0.438 (0.378–0.498) |
Age (years) | 74.78 ± 12.78 | 73.37 ± 13.79 | 0.382 | – | ||
Age > 75 | 150 | 63.29% | 53 | 57.61% | 0.377 | 0.472 (0.412–0.531) |
Vital signs at ED arrival | ||||||
Respiratory rate (bpm) | 29.46 ± 5.39 | 30.76 ± 6.88 | 0.070 | – | ||
Respiratory rate > 30 | 96 | 40.51% | 52 | 56.52% | 0.010 | 0.580 (0.520–0.640) |
Heart rate (bpm) | 97.82 ± 21.51 | 105.87 ± 26.67 | 0.005 | – | ||
Heart rate > 110 | 64 | 27.00% | 40 | 43.48% | 0.005 | 0.582 (0.524–0.641) |
Systolic BP (mmHg) | 156.68 ± 32.99 | 142.03 ± 39.27 | < 0.001 | – | ||
SBP < 110 | 16 | 6.75% | 18 | 19.57 | 0.001 | 0.564 (0.520–0.608) |
Oxygen saturation (%) | 92.31 ± 6.03 | 87.84 ± 11.21 | < 0.001 | |||
SpO2 < 90 | 55 | 23.21% | 39 | 43.33% | 0.001 | 0.601 (0.543–0.659) |
Body temperature (°C) | 37.13 ± 0.86 | 37.39 ± 0.90 | 0.015 | |||
Body temp > 37.5 | 58 | 24.47 | 37 | 40.22 | 0.007 | 0.579 (0.521–0.636) |
Glasgow coma scale | ||||||
GCS 13–15 | 229 | 96.62% | 84 | 93.33% | 0.222 | 0.517 (0.488–0.545) |
GCS 9–12 | 8 | 3.38% | 6 | 6.67% | ||
Laboratory test | ||||||
White blood cell (× 103/μL) | 9362.62 ± 4531.24 | 13,929.24 ± 15,127.59 | < 0.001 | – | ||
WBC > 10,000 | 78 | 32.91% | 53 | 57.61% | < 0.001 | 0.624 (0.565–0.682) |
Hemoglobin (g/dL) | 10.98 ± 2.16 | 11.51 ± 2.08 | 0.048 | – | ||
HgB < 12 in female or HgB < 13 in male | 174 | 73.42% | 68 | 73.91% | 1.000 | 0.503 (0.449–0.556) |
Hematocrit (%) | 33.94 ± 7.07 | 35.03 ± 7.96 | 0.227 | – | ||
Hct < 36 in female or Hct < 40 in male | 161 | 67.93% | 55 | 59.78% | 0.196 | 0.459 (0.401–0.518) |
Blood urea nitrogen (mg/dL)(Med, IQR) | 29.31 ± 21.82(22.00, 25.00) | 33.84 ± 26.85(24.50, 32.00) | 0.115 | – | ||
BUN > 18 | 142 | 59.92% | 62 | 67.39% | 0.255 | 0.537 (0.480–0.595) |
Creatinine (mg/dL) | 2.30 ± 2.77(1.28, 1.59) | 2.19 ± 2.48(1.21, 1.55) | 0.742 | – | ||
Cr > 1.02 | 146 | 61.60% | 51 | 55.43% | 0.318 | 0.469 (0.409–0.529) |
Sodium (mEq/L) | 136.45 ± 5.19 | 134.71 ± 6.71 | 0.013 | – | ||
136–145 | 147 | 62.23% | 46 | 50.00% | 0.090 | 0.558 (0.498–0.618) |
< 136 | 86 | 36.29% | 45 | 48.91% | ||
> 145 | 4 | 1.69% | 1 | 1.09% | ||
Potassium (mEq/L) | 4.23 ± 0.66 | 4.33 ± 0.92 | 0.275 | – | ||
3.5–5.1 | 169 | 71.31% | 61 | 66.30% | 0.247 | 0.532 (0.474–0.591) |
< 3.5 | 41 | 17.30% | 14 | 15.22% | ||
> 5.1 | 27 | 11.39% | 17 | 18,48% | ||
Arterial blood gas | ||||||
pH | 7.40 ± 0.04 | 7.40 ± 0.07 | 0.506 | – | ||
Acidosis < 7.30 | 3 | 1.27% | 6 | 6.52% | 0.016 | 0.526 (0.500–0.552) |
PaO2 (mmHg) | 121.70 ± 37.55 | 125.28 ± 59.73 | 0.517 | – | ||
PaO2 < 60 | 13 | 5.49% | 7 | 7.61% | 0.451 | 0.511 (0.480–0.541) |
PaCO2 (mmHg) | 39.44 ± 6.25 | 37.85 ± 11.28 | 0.106 | – | ||
PaCO2 > 50 | 11 | 4.64% | 5 | 5.43% | 0.778 | 0.504 (0.477–0.531) |
HCO3 (mEq/L) | 22.14 ± 4.14 | 20.53 ± 6.61 | 0.014 | – | ||
> 22 | 105 | 44.49% | 30 | 33.33% | 0.078 | 0.444 (0.386–0.503) |
Lactate (mmol/L) | 2.61 ± 1.03 | 3.50 ± 2.67 | < 0.001 | – | ||
< 4 | 227 | 95.78 | 72 | 78.26 | < 0.001 | 0.589 (0.544–0.633) |
4–8 | 8 | 3.38 | 12 | 13.04 | ||
> 8 | 2 | 0.84 | 8 | 8.70 | ||
FiO2 | 0.26 ± 0.16 | 0.32 ± 0.23 | 0.017 | – | ||
PaO2 / FiO2 (mmHg) | 531.67 ± 181.01 | 499.40 ± 229.79 | 0.181 | – | ||
PaO2 / FiO2 < 300 | 33 | 13.92% | 20 | 21.74% | 0.095 | 0.539 (0.491–0.587) |
Vasoactive agents (N, %) | 19 | 8.05% | 16 | 17.58% | 0.017 | 0.452 (0.409–0.495) |
qSOFA score > 2 | 14 | 5.91% | 16 | 17.78% | 0.002 | 0.559 (0.517–0.602) |
Diagnosis (N, %) | ||||||
Volume overload | 32 | 13.50% | 4 | 4.35% | 0.017 | 0.546 (0.516–0.576) |
Congestive heart failure | 115 | 48.52% | 29 | 31.52% | 0.006 | 0.585 (0.528–0.642) |
Tracheobronchitis | 23 | 9.75% | 11 | 11.96% | 0.550 | 0.489 (0.451–0.527) |
COPD | 55 | 23.31% | 23 | 25.00% | 0.774 | 0.492 (0.439–0.544) |
Pneumonia | 63 | 26.58% | 43 | 46.74% | 0.001 | 0.399 (0.341–0.458) |
Pleural effusion | 15 | 6.33% | 8 | 8.70% | 0.473 | 0.488 (0.455–0.521) |
Pulmonary embolism | 4 | 1.69% | 3 | 3.26% | 0.404 | 0.492 (0.472–0.512) |
ARDS | 0 | 0.00% | 5 | 5.43% | 0.002 | 0.473 (0.450–0.496) |
Sepsis | 28 | 11.81% | 23 | 25.00% | 0.006 | 0.434 (0.385–0.483) |
Septic shock | 1 | 0.42% | 16 | 17.39% | < 0.001 | 0.415 (0.376–0.454) |
Anemia | 16 | 6.75% | 3 | 3.26% | 0.297 | 0.518 (0.493–0.542) |
Influenza | 26 | 10.97% | 15 | 16.30% | 0.196 | 0.473 (0.430–0.516) |
Neurological disease | 1 | 0.42% | 3 | 3.26% | 0.068 | 0.486 (0.467–0.505) |
Acute kidney injury | 39 | 16.46% | 31 | 33.70% | 0.001 | 0.414 (0.360–0.468) |
Revisit in 7 days (N, %) | 15 | 6.33% | 8 | 8.70% | 0.473 | 0.488 (0.455–0.521) |