Table 1 Summary of model parameters
Parameter | Mean | Distribution or 95% CI | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
Baseline risks | |||
Risk of mortality | 0.257 | Beta (9,26) | ACUTE |
Risk of intubation | 0.034 | Beta (1,28) | ACUTE |
OR for prehospital CPAP | |||
Base case scenario (effectiveness parameters from ACUTE) | |||
Log (Mortality OR) | 0.145 | Normal (0.145, 0.521) | ACUTE |
Log (Intubation OR) | 0.591 | Normal (0.591, 1.403) | ACUTE |
Scenario using effectiveness parameters from NMA | |||
Log (Mortality OR) | −0.916 | Samples | ACUTE, HTA meta-analysis [2] |
Log (Intubation OR) | −1.050 | Samples | ACUTE, HTA meta-analysis [2] |
Life expectancy of patients | |||
Lifetime years | 2.67 years | Normal (2.67, 0.16) | 3CPO trial [12], Clinical opinion |
Health related quality of life | |||
Utility | 0.6 | Beta (640,425) | 3CPO trial [12], Clinical opinion |
Costs (in £) | |||
Prehospital CPAP | £33 | Normal (£33, £3.3) | O-Two/SP [13], WMAS, Expert opinion |
Hospitalisation | £3200 | Gamma (80,40) | NHS Reference Costs [14] |
Intubation | £3600 | Gamma (90, 40) | HCHS index [15], Clinical opinion |
Annual costs | £6000 | Gamma (60, 100) | |