Table 4 Best-fit ARIMA models and their predictors by patient acuity category
From: Forecasting daily attendances at an emergency department to aid resource planning
| Â | Â | Â | Â | MAPE (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patient acuity category | Best-fit model | No. of predictors | Predictors (maximum lag correlation) | Test | Validation |
P1 | ARIMA(0,1,1) | 1 | PSI > 50 (2 days) | 18.2 | 16.8 |
P2 | ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1) | 1 | Public holiday (1 day) | 7.7 | 6.7 |
P3 | ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,1) | 2 | Public holiday (1 day), PSI > 50 (0 day) | 7.2 | 8.6 |
All | ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,1) | 1 | Public holiday (1 day) | 4.4 | 4.8 |