Table 5 Model evaluation
Multivariable Logistic Regression Models | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model No. | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
No. of visits constituting ‘frequent use’ | > = 8 | > = 9 | > = 10 | > = 11 | > = 12 | > = 13 | > = 14 | > = 15 | > = 16 | |
Area under ROC curve (AUC) | 0.84 | 0.85 | 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.92 | |
With sensitivity < =25 %, probability > 0.5 | ||||||||||
PPV (%) | 64.5 | 63.9 | 63.4 | 62.9 | 62.4 | 61.3 | 60.8 | 60.6 | 59.5 | |
Specificity (%) | 99.5 | 99.6 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 99.8 | 99.8 | 99.8 | 99.8 | 99.9 | |
False positive patients | Total No. | 5883 | 4923 | 4125 | 3447 | 2974 | 2610 | 2273 | 2007 | 1805 |
> = 8 visits (No.) | 0 | 565 | 843 | 1021 | 1071 | 1103 | 1077 | 1038 | 998 | |
Adjusted PPV for patients with > =8 visits in subsequent two years (%) | 64.5 | 68 | 70.9 | 73.9 | 75.9 | 77.7 | 79.4 | 81 | 81.9 | |