Internal validation and comparison of the prognostic performance of models based on six emergency scoring systems to predict in-hospital mortality in the emergency department

Table 3 Intercept and slope of the linear predictor of the logistic regression for all models to predict in-hospital mortality in ED; the optimism-corrected performance measures; and various threshold-based metrics (the threshold is itself based on the Youden index)

Models	Intercept (β₀)	Slope (β₁)	AUC-ROC (95% CI)	AUC-PR (95%CI)	BS	BS 95% CI	Threshold^a	SE	SP	PPV	NPV	Accuracy
SCS	-2.6914	0.238	0.71(0.688, 0.742)	0.39 (0.37-0.41)	0.146	(0.136,0.154)	5.5	0.607	0.697	0.3249	0.881	0.680
WPS	-2.6456	0.3583	0.73(0.700, 0.757)	0.42 (0.40-0.44)	0.173	(0.164,0.182)	3.5	0.624	0.7403	0.3653	0.8916	0.717
RAPS	-2.0675	0.318	0.66(0.635, 0.686)	0.35 (0.33-0.37)	0.091	(0.079,0.098)	1.6	0.495	0.7667	0.3370	0.8638	0.714
REMS	-2.692	0.1913	0.68(0.657, 0.705)	0.34 (0.32-0.36)	0.10	(0.095,0.112)	5.5	0.748	0.4957	0.2623	0.8918	0.544
MEWS	-2.1653	0.2833	0.70(0.678, 0.726)	0.36 (0.34-0.39)	0.16	(0.105,0.123)	2.5	0.617	0.693	0.3250	0.8832	0.678
RLD	-2.3523	0.0076	0.66(0.632, 0.689)	0.33 (0.31,0.35)	0.07	(0.060,0.082)	127	0.5	0.7431	0.3179	0.8612	0.6961

Abbreviations: AUC-ROC Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve, AUC-PR The area under the precision-recall curve, CI Confidence Interval, BS Brier Score, PPV Positive Predictive Value, SE sensitivity, SP specificity, NPV Negative Predictive Value, SCS Simple Clinical Score, WPS Worthing physiological score, RAPS Rapid Acute Physiology Score, REMS Rapid Emergency Medicine score, MEWS Modified Early Warning Score, RLD Routine Laboratory Data, ED Emergency Department
^a This threshold is calculated based on the Youden index

ISSN: 1471-227X