Table 2 Early warning score performance and clinical utility for in-hospital mortality and mechanical ventilation in emergency patients with COVID-19
Discrimination | Calibration | Overall performance | Clinical utility | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | AUROC (95%CI) | Hosmer-Lemeshow Test | Nagelkerke’s R-Square (%) | Score category | Sensitivity (95%CI) | Specificity (95%CI) | PPV (95%CI) | NPV (95%CI) | LR+ (95%CI) | LR- (95%CI) |
In-hospital mortality | ||||||||||
qSOFA | 0.620 (0.589, 0.651) | 0.457 | 9.3 | qSOFA ≥ 2 | 32.7 (26.9–38.8) | 89.1 (86.6–91.3) | 51.2 (43.3–59.2) | 79.0 (76.1–81.8) | 3.0 (2.3–3.9) | 0.8 (0.7–0.8) |
MEWS | 0.657 (0.619, 0.694) | 0.559 | 8.8 | MEWS ≥ 4 | 54.7 (48.4–61.0) | 67.5 (64.0-70.9) | 37.2 (32.3–42.3) | 81.0 (77.6–84.0) | 1.7 (1.5-2.0) | 0.7 (0.6–0.8) |
NEWS | 0.732 (0.697, 0.767) | 0.156 | 18.7 | NEWS ≥ 7 | 78.7 (73.2–83.6) | 57.3 (53.6–61.0) | 39.3 (35.0-43.7) | 88.5 (85.2–91.2) | 1.8 (1.7–2.1) | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) |
REMS | 0.771 (0.738, 0.804) | 0.943 | 25.0 | REMS ≥ 9 | 63.4 (57.1–69.3) | 77.6 (74.4–80.6) | 49.8 (44.3–55.4) | 85.8 (82.9–88.4) | 2.8 (2.4–3.3) | 0.5 (0.4–0.6) |
Mechanical ventilation | ||||||||||
qSOFA | 0.547 (0.513, 0.582) | 0.074 | 0.9 | qSOFA ≥ 2 | 22.6 (16.3–30.0) | 84.6 (81.9–87.0) | 21.6 (15.5–28.7) | 85.3 (82.7–87.7) | 1.5 (1.1-2.0) | 0.9 (0.8-1.0) |
MEWS | 0.666 (0.623, 0.710) | 0.116 | 6.9 | MEWS ≥ 4 | 60.0 (51.8–67.8) | 65.9 (62.5–69.1) | 24.9 (20.6–29.6) | 89.7 (87.0–92.0) | 1.8 (1.5–2.1) | 0.6 (0.5–0.7) |
NEWS | 0.718 (0.678, 0.758) | 0.037 | 11.5 | NEWS ≥ 7 | 83.9 (77.1–89.3) | 53.9 (50.5–57.4) | 25.5 (21.8–29.6) | 94.7 (92.2–96.5) | 1.8 (1.7-2.0) | 0.3 (0.2–0.4) |
REMS | 0.724 (0.682, 0.765) | 0.322 | 13.6 | REMS ≥ 9 | 60.0 (51.8–67.8) | 72.1 (68.9–75.1) | 28.8 (23.9–34.1) | 90.5 (88.0-92.7) | 2.2 (1.8–2.5) | 0.6 (0.5–0.7) |